The first Saturday in May approaches and horse racing enthusiasts - bettors, baby, bettors - everywhere await those two precious late afternoon minutes when all the world is young and full of hope and every breeder, horse owner, would-be squire, and intoxicated rail bird can fix her or his eyes on the prize - and dream. For the hardened cynics among us - bettors, baby, bettors - we feel our senses sharpen and our minds focus as we bring years of analysis, hypothesis, hunches, and disappointments to bear on one wagering opportunity (an experience most likely realized earlier in the day as we pre-wagered the race to allow us to witness its actual running through the blur of good Kentucky bourbon).Anyway, here's whatya' gotta' do if you wanna' cash a ticket on the Derby.
Early Speed One, identify the early speed in the races. "Early speed" describes horses who habitually break from the gate with everything they've got in an effort to get to the front of the pack and stay there. Generally early speed fags out somewhere between the half-mile call and the three-quarters mile call (maybe the mile marker) as closers, or late-runners, close down the race leaders and demand a final sprint to the finish line.
Closers In the Kentucky Derby, even closers have to show some kind of quickness to avoid being trapped among several tiring horses as the race progresses, because the race inevitably attracts many horses without a prayer of actually winning the race. These also-rans; appear at the starting gate generally only to provide wealthy owners a chance to drink with the quality in Louisville for the several days before and after the race.
Anyway, because on Derby Day even the also-rans can turn in a pretty-darn-quick one-half or three-quarters of a mile, the first three fractions of the race can sizzle, for example, 22, 44, and [1.06] seconds, and, even reliable closers left in the slipstream of this preliminary war of attrition by careless jockies will wither and fail at the finish, too.
Don't bet on early speed.
Now, with the rabbits exed off your program, begin to sift among the closers for a horse which can handle the prodigious distance of the Kentucky Derby, the first and only time most race horses will run one- and-one-quarter miles. Look for a closer which finished going away in at least one of the major Derby prep races. A horse closing down on the front horse down the stretch without showing signs of fatigue in doing so, may have The Move, or the ability to wear down not only early speed but also to outlast legitimate closers.
The Kennedy Letter recommends a wager to win on Cape Town, as we look to see Wayne Lucas's horse come from way back in the pack to gobble up the field in the Kentucky Derby.